2019年第三季度新兴市场货币政策普遍宽松
Monetary Easing Prevalent in Emerging Markets in the Third Quarter
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2019-11-22 12:56
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The US-China trade conflict has remained at the forefront of investor concerns in recent months, with both governments imposing tariffs on each other’s goods. While continued tensions are likely to result in continued market volatility, Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity nonetheless finds reasons to be positive about emerging markets, with a more dovish global central bank backdrop offering support.

近几个月来,中美贸易冲突一直处于风口浪尖,两国政府都对彼此的商品加征关税。虽然持续的紧张局势可能会导致市场继续波动,但富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票团队仍认为上述原因对新兴市场有利,全球央行较为温和的态度亦提供支持。

Three Things We’re Thinking About Today

今天我们要考虑三件事

  1. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a meaningful reduction in India’s corporate tax rates to help spur investment and boost growth in the country’s slowing economy. These changes came as a positive surprise and send a strong signal that the government has recognized the stress that corporates face from weak sentiment and subdued economic activity. While there has been some concern that the measure will result in a decrease in revenues, we believe there are mitigating factors that could reduce the loss in revenues. It is also important to note that the level of impact differs from sector to sector, particularly in sectors subjected to the highest effective tax rates. For instance, banking would be a key beneficiary as it is a full-tax paying industry. Most consumer companies also benefit from the corporate tax cuts. However, companies that currently receive tax relief or incentives from the local state government will not benefit as much. Overall, we think India’s corporate tax cuts should help spur investment over the longer term. We continue to favor companies that can benefit from secular growth drivers such as favorable demographics, infrastructure investment, urban and rural consumption growth and increasing income levels.
  2. China recently announced the removal of the investment quotas under its Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) and RMB Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) programs. Increasing market access for foreign investors has been an ongoing process, as China undertakes structural reforms to its capital markets and allows foreign firms greater control over their assets. The move also follows a recent decision to allow foreign financial firms an option to take majority stakes in joint ventures. Certainly, the lifting of these restrictions on foreign investment in China was a welcome surprise. However, we think it is unlikely to have a dramatic impact in the short term because the existing quota system was underutilized. If we see further measures to liberalize and enhance market access that will encourage index providers such as MSCI and FTSE to increase the inclusion factor, we think China’s weighting in global benchmark indexes will invariably rise, and passive funds may have no choice but to step up their purchases of Chinese securities. While the overall immediate impact of China’s move to lift restrictions on foreign investment may not be drastic, we think the initiative signifies China’s commitment and long-term strategic decision to further increase access to its financial markets.
  3. Optimism surrounding the government’s economic agenda, including the key social security reform, has resulted in a more favorable climate in Brazil. While the country’s economic recovery has been slower than expected, with the government forecasting gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 0.85% in 2019, government and central bank efforts could improve the country’s longer-term GDP growth potential.1 Inflation has also remained under control, allowing the central bank to lower interest rates to record-low levels to stimulate the economy. We believe the approval of pension system reform is key to stimulating investment and credit, which should help improve economic activity, as well as help significantly reduce Brazil’s fiscal deficit. A major privatization plan has also been announced, and we expect tax and other reforms that could improve the ease of doing business to follow. We maintain a positive outlook on the equity market and continue to have a favorable view on domestic-oriented themes, including financials and consumer-related sectors.

1. 印度财政部长西塔拉曼(Nirmala Sitharaman)最近宣布大幅降低国内企业税率,以帮助刺激投资及促进该国放缓的经济实现增长。这些变化令人十分意外,并发出强烈的信号,即政府已意识到疲弱的情绪及低迷的经济活动给企业带来的压力。虽然有些担忧该措施将导致收入减少,但我们认为存在一些缓解因素可降低收入损失。同样值得注意的是,影响的程度因行业而异,尤其是在实行最高有效税率的行业。例如,银行业是一个全额纳税的行业,将成为主要受益者。大多数消费公司也受益于企业减税。然而,目前从地方州政府获得税收减免或激励的公司将不会享有同样多的裨益。印度的企业减税应有助于刺激较长期投资。我们认为企业将受益于长期的增长动力,如有利的人口结构、基础设施投资、城乡消费增长和收入水平的提高。

2. 中国最近宣布取消其合格境外机构投资者及人民币合格境外机构投资者计划的投资额度限制。加大外国投资者的市场是一个持续的过程,中国对其资本市场进行结构性改革并允许外国公司加大对其资产的控制权。此举还遵循最近一项决定,即允许外国金融公司在合资企业中持有多数股权。然而,我们认为,由于现有的配额制度没有得到充分利用,这一决策短期内不太可能产生重大影响。如果进一步看,拓宽市场准入将推动摩根士丹利资本国际指数(MSCI)和富时100指数等行业指数增加纳入系数,那么中国的全球基准指数权重将维持上升趋势,导致被动基金可能别无选择,只能加紧购买中国证券。虽然中国取消对外国投资限制的整体直接影响可能并不大,但我们认为,此举意味着中国对进一步加大外国进入金融市场的承诺及长期战略决定。

3. 在巴西,围绕政府经济议程的乐观情绪,包括关键的社会保障改革,造成更为有利的投资氛围。虽然该国的经济复苏速度慢于预期 - 政府预测2019年国内生产总值增长0.85%,但政府及央行的努力可能会改善该国的较长期国内生产总值增长潜力。通胀亦仍处于可控范围内,使央行能够下调利率至纪录低位以刺激经济。我们认为,巴西养老金体系改革获批准是刺激投资及信贷的关键,这将有助于改善经济活动,并有助于显著减少巴西的财政赤字。重大的私有化计划也已宣布,预期税收及其他改革将会改善营商环境。我们对股市维持乐观展望,并继续看好面向国内的投资主题,包括金融及消费相关行业。

Outlook

展望

The US-China trade conflict has remained at the forefront in recent months, with both governments imposing tariffs on each other’s goods. However, it should be emphasized any impact of the trade war has not been limited to China; rather, we have seen a global impact. While the resumption of trade talks expected in October indicates the willingness of both sides to work toward resolving outstanding issues, we remain cautious and expect continued volatility in the interim.

近几个月来,中美贸易冲突一直处于风口浪尖,两国政府都对彼此的商品加征关税。然而,应该强调的是,贸易战的任何影响都不会仅限于中国;相反,我们已看到了全球性的影响。贸易谈判的恢复表明双方愿意为解决悬而未决的问题而努力,我们仍保持谨慎态度,预计在此期间波动还会继续。

Political turmoil in the United States following the launch of an impeachment inquiry on the US President Donald Trump added to increased market volatility in the interim. However, reduced expectations of further escalation led investors to refocus on the US-China trade dispute and US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. The Fed has reduced its benchmark rate twice in the last three months, with expectations rising for another rate cut by the end of 2019.

在对美国总统特朗普启动弹劾调查之后,美国出现政治动荡,加剧了此期间的市场波动。然而,对进一步升级的预期降温,导致投资者重新关注中美贸易争端及美联储政策。过去三个月,美联储两次下调基准利率,市场对美联储在2019年底前再次降息的预期升温。

Slowing economic growth expectations, declining inflationary pressures and easing monetary policy in developed economies, including the United States and the eurozone, have led central banks in emerging markets (EMs) to generally turn more dovish this year. We expect this trend to continue with rate cuts in a number of larger EMs, including India, Brazil, Russia and Mexico. Coupled with improving earnings expectations and relatively undemanding valuations and dividend yields, we believe the outlook for EM equities remains attractive.

美国及欧元区等已发展经济体的经济增长预期放缓、通胀压力下降以及货币政策放宽,导致新兴市场各央行今年总体上趋鸽派。随着印度、巴西、俄罗斯及墨西哥等多个较大的新兴市场国家纷纷降息,该趋势将会持续。加上盈利预期日益改善以及估值及股息率相对较低,新兴市场股票的前景依然具吸引力。

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Emerging Markets Key Trends and Developments

新兴市场的主要趋势和发展

Stock markets worldwide weathered a volatile quarter amid bumpy US-China trade negotiations and global recession fears. Central banks in several major markets, including the United States, cut interest rates to support economic activity. EM equities declined in US-dollar terms, while developed market stocks recorded a modest gain. EM currencies as a whole fell against the US dollar. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index lost 4.1% over the quarter, compared with a 0.7% return in the MSCI World Index, both in US dollars.2

由于美中贸易紧张局势再度加剧,以及人们对全球经济增长的担忧日益加剧导致全球股市在第三季度跌宕起伏。美国等几个主要市场的央行纷纷降息以支持经济活动。以美元计算,新兴市场股市下跌,发达市场股市则小幅上涨。整体而言,新兴市场货币兑美元汇率呈下跌趋势。摩根士丹利资本国际新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Markets Index)本季度下跌4.1%,以美元计算,该指数的回报率则为0.7%。

The Most Important Moves in Emerging Markets in the Third Quarter of 2019

2019年第三季度新兴市场的关键举措

Most Asian markets finished the quarter lower as trade tensions clouded the economic outlook for the region. The US-China trade row remained in focus—both countries announced more tariffs in August but made conciliatory moves in September. An escalating trade dispute between South Korea and Japan added to market uncertainty. Stocks in China and South Korea retreated. In India, equities fell as the economy’s momentum faltered, though corporate tax cuts and other stimulus measures helped stem the decline. Bucking the downtrend, Taiwanese equities rose. Suppliers to Apple were lifted by encouraging pre-orders for the latest iPhone.

全球贸易紧张局势给亚洲市场经济前景蒙上阴影的背景下,除日本外大部分亚洲股市在第三季度出现下跌。美中贸易争端仍是焦点所在——两国都在8月份宣布提高关税,但在9月份采取了和解措施。韩国和日本之间不断升级的贸易争端加剧了市场的不确定性。中国和韩国股市下跌。在印度,随着经济增长势头减弱,股市下跌,尽管企业减税和其他刺激措施似乎取得了一些进展,但到目前为止,该国股市依然低迷。台湾股市逆势上扬。苹果(Apple)供应商因实行预购最新款iPhone的鼓励措施而表现强劲。

Markets in Latin America declined over the quarter with Argentina, Peru and Chile leading the way down. Although declining, Mexico and Brazil performed better than their regional peers. Despite a rebound in September, the Argentine market lost nearly half its value in US dollar terms over the three-month period on increased political uncertainty, debt re-profiling and the imposition of capital controls. Market turmoil, however, remained largely contained to Argentina. Brazil’s central bank lowered its key interest rate by 100 basis points to an all-time low of 5.5% to stimulate the domestic economy. Progress on the reform front further supported investor confidence. In August, Mexico’s central bank reduced its benchmark interest rate for the first time in more than five years, citing weak domestic growth and lower inflation.

拉丁美洲市场在本季度呈下跌态势,其中阿根廷、秘鲁和智利领跌。尽管有所下降,但墨西哥和巴西的表现要好于其他地区国家。尽管9月份出现反弹,但由于政治不确定性增加、债务重组和实施资本管制,以美元计算,阿根廷股市在过去3个月期间下跌近一半。然而,当前的金融市场动荡仍主要局限在土耳其。巴西央行将基准利率下调100个基点,至5.5%的历史最低水平,以刺激国内经济。改革取得的进展进一步提振了投资者信心。今年8月,墨西哥央行5年多来首次下调基准利率,理由是国内经济增长疲弱,通货膨胀率较低。

The Europe, Middle East and Africa region as a whole lagged their EM peers in the third quarter. South Africa and Poland were among the weakest performers, ending the quarter with double-digit losses. Turkey and Egypt, in contrast, recorded strong returns, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar and Russia also outperformed regional peers. The South African Reserve Bank left interest rates unchanged in September, following a 25 basis-point cut in July, as it continued to balance economic growth concerns and inflation expectations. A weaker South African rand also pressured returns in US dollar terms. Attractive valuations in Russia and the UAE supported investor sentiment with some comfort, while a larger-than-expected 150 basis point interest-rate cut amid a downward inflation trend drove returns in Egypt.

第三季度,欧洲、中东和非洲地区整体表现落后于新兴市场同行。南非和波兰是表现最差的两个国家,在步入下一季度之前其损失已达两位数。相比之下,土耳其和埃及的投资回报强劲,而阿拉伯联合酋长国(UAE)、卡塔尔和俄罗斯的表现也强于亚洲其它国家。南非央行(South African Reserve Bank)继7月份降息25个基点后,9月份又维持利率不变,继续平衡经济增长担忧和通胀预期。南非兰特走软也令以美元计算的回报率承压。俄罗斯和阿联酋给出的颇具吸引力的估值在一定程度上吸引了更多的投资者,而埃及在通胀下行趋势下降息150个基点,幅度大于预期,推动埃及股市取得收益。

Regional Outlook

各区域的前景

As at 31 December 2017

截至2017年12月31日

The graphic above reflects the views of Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity regarding each region. All viewpoints reflect solely the views and opinions of Franklin Templeton Emerging Markets Equity. Not representative of an actual account or portfolio.

上图反映了富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票对每个地区的看法。所有观点仅反映富兰克林邓普顿新兴市场股票的观点和意见,不代表实际账户或投资组合。

Important Legal Information

重要的法律信息

The comments, opinions and analyses presented herein are for informational purposes only and should not be considered individual investment advice or recommendations to invest in any security or to adopt any investment strategy. Because market and economic conditions are subject to rapid change, comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as of the date of the posting and may change without notice. The material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region, market, industry, investment or strategy. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future results. 

本文所提供的评论、意见和分析仅供参考,不应被视为投资于任何证券或采取任何投资策略的个人投资建议或意见。由于市场及经济情况变化莫测,有关的意见、意见及分析将于投寄当日作出,并可能随时更改,恕不另行通知。本材料并非针对任何国家、地区、市场、行业、投资或战略的所有重大事实进行全面分析。之前的表现不为之后提供任何指标参考或保证。

The companies and case studies shown herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton.

本文所列的公司和案例研究仅供说明;富兰克林邓普顿(Franklin Templeton)所建议的任何投资组合目前尚未确认是否存在投入。

Data from third-party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information, and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user. Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered by FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulations permit. Please consult your own professional adviser for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.

来自第三方的数据可能已被用于此材料的准备,富兰克林邓普顿(“FT”)尚未对此类数据进行独立的验证、验证或审计。英国《金融时报》对因使用本信息而产生的任何损失不承担任何责任,用户可自行决定是否相信材料中的评论、意见和分析。产品、服务和信息可能无法在所有司法管辖区获得,并在当地法律法规允许的情况下由英国《金融时报》关联公司和/或其分销商提供。请咨询您自己的专业顾问,以进一步获得在您管辖范围内产品和服务的信息。

What Are the Risks?

有哪些风险?

All investments involve risks, including the possible loss of principal. Investments in foreign securities involve special risks including currency fluctuations, economic instability and political developments. Investments in emerging markets, of which frontier markets are a subset, involve heightened risks related to the same factors, in addition to those associated with these markets’ smaller size, lesser liquidity and lack of established legal, political, business and social frameworks to support securities markets. Because these frameworks are typically even less developed in frontier markets, as well as various factors including the increased potential for extreme price volatility, illiquidity, trade barriers and exchange controls, the risks associated with emerging markets are magnified in frontier markets. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions.

有哪些风险?所有的投资都有风险,包括可能的本金损失。特定风险,包括货币波动、经济不稳定和政治发展都与对外投资相关。前沿市场是新兴市场的子集之一,新兴市场的投资除了与这些市场规模较小、流动性较差、缺乏成熟法律、政治、商业和社会框架支持的证券市场相关的风险外,还涉及与这些因素相关的高额风险。由于这些框架在前沿市场的通常表现甚至更不发达,以及包括极端价格波动、流动性不足、贸易壁垒和外汇管制的可能性增加在内的各种因素,新兴市场的相关风险在前沿市场更为凸显。在影响个别公司、特定行业或部门或一般市场状况的因素作用下,股票价格会表现出极大的不稳定性。

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1. There is no assurance that any estimate, forecast or projection will be realized.

1. 不保证任何估计、预测或预期实现的可能性。

2. Source: Source: MSCI. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index captures large- and mid-cap representation across 24 emerging-market countries. The MSCI World Index captures large- and mid-cap performance across 23 developed markets. Indexes are unmanaged and one cannot directly invest in them. They do not include fees, expenses or sales charges. Past performance is not an indicator or guarantee of future results. MSCI makes no warranties and shall have no liability with respect to any MSCI data reproduced herein. No further redistribution or use is permitted. This report is not prepared or endorsed by MSCI. Important data provider notices and terms available at www.franklintempletondatasources.com.

2. 资料来源:摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)。MSCI新兴市场指数涵盖了24个新兴市场国家的大中型企业。摩根士丹利资本国际全球指数涵盖23个发达市场的大中型股。索引是非托管的,不能直接投资。它们不包括费用、开支或销售费用。之前的表现不为之后提供任何指标参考或保证。对于本协议中任何复制的MSCI数据,MSCI不作出任何保证,也不承担任何责任。不允许进一步重新分配或使用。本报告未由MSCI编制或认可。点击www.franklintempletondatasources.com可获得有关重要数据提供者的通知和条款。

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