西方将如何适应崛起的亚洲?
How will the West adapt to the rising Asia?
2044字
2019-11-13 13:57
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火星译客

About 200 years ago, Napoleon famously warned... He said, "Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." Despite this early warning, the West chose to go to sleep at precisely the moment when China and India and the rest of Asia woke up.

大约两百年前,拿破仑有一句非常著名的警示语,他说,“让中国沉睡吧,一旦她醒了,她将震撼整个世界。”虽然有这个很早的警告,但西方却恰恰在中国、印度和其它亚洲国家苏醒的时候选择沉睡。

Why did this happen? I'm here to address this great mystery. Now what do I mean when I say the West chose to go to sleep? Here I'm referring to the failure of the West to react intelligently and thoughtfully to a new world environment that's obviously been created by the return of Asia.

为什么会发生这样的事情?我来为大家解开这个谜团。我说西方选择沉睡是什么意思呢?我指的是西方在明智和周到地应对亚洲回归时所建立的一个新世界环境时所面临的失败。

As a friend of the West I feel anguished by this, so my goal to today is to try to help the West. But I have to begin the story first by talking about how the West actually woke up the rest of the world.

作为西方的朋友,我对此感到极度痛苦,所以我今天的目的就是试着来帮助西方。但首先我需要讲一个故事,这个故事是讲述西方如何使这个世界其他国家苏醒的。

From the year one through the year 1820, the two largest economies of the world were always those of China and India. So it's only in the last 200 years that Europe took off, followed by North America. So the past 200 years of world history have therefore been a major historical aberration.

从第一年到1820年,世界上两个最大的经济体一直都是中国和印度。所以只有过去的200年由欧洲获得了第一名,北美紧随其后。因此过去200年的世界历史成为了一个重要的历史偏差。

All aberrations come to a natural end and this is what we are seeing. And if you look at chart two, you'll see how quickly and how forcefully China and India are coming back. The big question is: Who woke up China and India?

所有的偏差最后终会走到一个自然的结局,就是我们现在看到的。如果你看一下图表二,你将会看到中国和印度将会多么快速和多么强有力地回归。那么最大的问题是:谁使中国和印度苏醒了?

The only honest answer to this question is that it was Western civilization that did so. We all know that the West was the first to successfully modernize, transform itself; initially it used its power to colonize and dominate the world. But over time, it shared the gifts of Western wisdom with the rest of the world.

唯一坦诚的答案是,西方文明使它们苏醒了。我们都知道西方是第一个成功现代化和转型的群体;最初它使用自己的力量殖民统治世界。但是随着时间流逝,它与世界上的其它国家分享了西方智慧的馈赠。

Let me add here that I have personally benefited from the sharing of Western wisdom. When I was born in Singapore, which was then a poor British colony, in 1948, I experienced, like three-quarters of humanity then, extreme poverty. Indeed, on the first day when I went to school at the age of six, I was put in a special feeding program because I was technically undernourished.

请让我在这里加入一点我作为个人收到的来自分享西方智慧的馈赠。当我出生在新加坡时,那时新加坡还只是一个贫穷的英国殖民地,在1948年,就像世界上四分之三的人类那样,我也经历了极度的贫穷。事实上,当我在6岁第一次走进学校时,就因为营养不良去参加了一个特殊营养计划。

Now as you can see I'm overnourished. But the greatest gift I got was that of Western education. Now since I've personally traveled this journey from third world poverty to a comfortable middle-class existence, I can speak with great conviction about the impact of Western wisdom and the sharing of Western wisdom with the world.

现在你们看,我是营养过剩了,但我收到最棒的礼物是西方教育。自从我自己进行了这场旅行,从贫穷的第三世界国家到一个舒适的中产阶级生活,我可以用坚定的口吻来讲述西方智慧的影响和西方智慧与世界做的分享。

And one particular gift that the West shared was the art of reasoning. Now reasoning was not invented by the West. It's inherent in all cultures and civilizations. Amartya Sen has described how deeply embedded it is in Indian civilization.

其中一个特别的馈赠是,西方分享了推理的艺术。推理不是西方创造的。它是所有的文化和文明与生俱来的。Amartya Sen描述过推理是如何深深的扎根在印度文明里。

Yet there's also no doubt that it was the West that carried the art of reasoning to a much higher level. And through the Scientific Revolution, the Enlightenment, the Industrial Revolution, the West really raised it forcefully, and equally importantly used this, applied it to solve many major practical problems. 

但无可否认,是西方将推理的艺术带向了更高的层次。并且通过科学革命,启蒙运动,工业革命使得西方强有力地崛起,同样重要的是,应用它可以解决许多重要的实际问题。

And the West then shared this art of applied reasoning with the rest of the world, and I can tell you that it led to what I call three silent revolutions. And as an Asian, I can describe how these silent revolutions transformed Asia. 

然后西方与世界其他地区分享了应用推理的艺术,并且我可以告诉你们,它引起了我所谓的“三次沉默革命”。作为一名亚洲人,我可以描述这些沉默革命是如何让亚洲转变的。

The first revolution was in economics. The main reason why so many Asian economies, including the communist societies of China and Vietnam, have performed so spectacularly well in economic development, is because they finally understood, absorbed and are implementing free market economics -- a gift from the West.

第一个革命是在经济方面。亚洲经济体,包括社会主义国家在内的中国和越南,能够有着表现如此惊人的经济发展的原因,是因为他们最终完全理解、吸收并且执行了自由市场经济--一个来自西方的馈赠。

Adam Smith was right. If you let markets decide, productivity goes up. The second gift was psychological. Here too I can speak from personal experience. When I was young, my mother and her generation believed that life was determined by fate.

亚当·密斯是对的。如果你让市场来主导,生产力就会提升。第二个馈赠是心理学。这里我同样可以通过我自身的经历来讲述。在我年幼的时候,我的母亲和她那一代人都相信,人的命运是注定的。

You couldn't do anything about it. My generation and the generation of Asians after me, believe that we can take charge and we can improve our lives. And this may explain, for example, the spike of entrepreneurship you see all throughout Asia today. And if you travel through Asia today, you will also see the results of the third revolution: the revolution of good governance.

你无法反抗你的命运。我那个年代和我之后年代的亚洲人,则相信我们可以主导命运并且我们可以改善自己的生活。这或许可以解释如今在整个亚洲随处可见的突增的创业数量。现在如果你在亚洲旅游,你同样将会看到第三个革命的结果:一个优质治理的革命。

Now as a result of good governance -- travel in Asia, you see better health care, better education, better infrastructure, better public policies. It's a different world. Now having transformed the world through the sharing of Western wisdom with the rest of the world, the logical and rational response of the West should have been to say, "Hey, we have to adjust and adapt to this new world."

由于一个优质的治理,在亚洲周游你会看到更好的医疗,更好的教育,更完善的基础建设,更人性化的公共政策。它是一个不同的世界。现在亚洲已经通过与世界其它区域共享西方智慧,改变了世界,西方有逻辑的理性回答应当是“嘿,我们不得不调整自己去适应这个新的世界。”

Instead, the West chose to go to sleep. Why did it happen? I believe it happened because the West became distracted with two major events. The first event was the end of the Cold War. Yes, the end of the Cold War was a great victory.

相反,西方选择沉睡。为什么会这样呢?我相信它发生是因为西方被两个重要的事件分心了。第一个事件是冷战结束。是的,冷战的结束是一个伟大的胜利。

The West defeated the mighty Soviet Union without firing a shot. Amazing. But you know, when you have a great victory like this, it also leads to arrogance and hubris. And this hubris was best captured in a very famous essay by Francis Fukuyama called "The End of History?"

西方不费一个子弹就打败了强大的苏联。不可思议。但是要知道,当你有了一个这么伟大的胜利,也同样导致了自大和傲慢。这种自大也被作家弗朗西斯·福山一篇非常著名的论文《历史的结束》完美的诠释了。

Now, Fukuyama was putting across a very sophisticated message, but all that the West heard from this essay was that we, the liberal democracies, we have succeeded, we don't have to change, we don't have to adapt, it's only the rest of the world that has to change and adapt.

福山传递了一条非常复杂的信息,但是西方从这篇论文里获得的所有信息就是我们,自由民主国家,我们胜利了,我们不需要改变,我们也不需要去适应,世界其它区域需要来改变和适应我们。

Unfortunately, like a dangerous opiate, this essay did a lot of brain damage to the West because it put them to sleep just at precisely the moment when China and India were waking up and the West didn't adjust and adapt.

不幸的是,这就像危险的毒品,这篇论文确实对西方造成了大量的大脑损伤,因为这让它们选择沉睡,恰好在中国和印度苏醒时,而西方并没有调整适应。

The second major event was 9/11, which happened in 2001. And as we know, 9/11 caused a lot of shock and grief. I personally experienced the shock and grief because I was in Manhattan when 9/11 happened. 9/11 also generated a lot of anger, and in this anger, the United States decided to invade Afghanistan and later, Iraq.

第二个重要事件是发生于2001年的9/11恐怖袭击。众所周知,9/11引起了巨大的震惊和悲痛。我个人也经历了这样的震惊和悲痛,因为当天我就在曼哈顿。9/11同样也引发了众怒,然后在这样的愤怒中,美国决定侵略阿富汗,以及随后的伊拉克。

And unfortunately, partly as a result of this anger, the West didn't notice the significance of another event that happened also in 2001. China joined the World Trade Organization.

不幸的是,这种愤怒带来的一部分结果就是,西方没有注意到另外一个同样发生在2001年的重要事件,即中国加入了世界贸易组织。

Now, when you suddenly inject 900 million new workers into the global capitalist system, it would naturally lead to what the economist Joseph Schumpeter called creative destruction. Western workers lost their jobs, they saw their incomes stagnate, clearly people had to think about new competitive policies, workers needed retraining, workers needed new skills.

当你突然向全球资本系统注入9亿名新的劳动力,这自然地就引发了被经济学家约瑟夫·熊彼特称之为的“创造性破坏”。西方的工人们失去了工作,眼睁睁看着他们的收入停滞,显然人们不得不思考新的竞争策略,工人需要重新培训,需要新的技能。

None of this was done. So partly as a result of this, the United States of America became the only major developed society where the average income of the bottom 50 percent, yes, 50 percent -- average income went down over a 30-year period, from 1980 to 2010.

对此,国家没有采取任何行动。出于这个原因,美国成为了唯一一个主要发达社会中底层50%的平均收入,是的,50%的平均收入在1980年到2010年的30年间不断下降。

So partly, as a result of this, it led eventually to the election of Donald Trump in 2016, who exploited the anger of the working classes, who are predominantly white. It also contributed to the rise of populism in Europe. And one wonders, could this populism have been avoided if the West had not been distracted by the end of the Cold War and by 9/11?

所以部分由于这个原因,最终导致了在2016年唐纳德·特朗普的当选,他利用了工人阶层的愤怒,这些人信奉白人至上主义。这也促成了欧洲民粹主义的崛起。有人可能疑惑,如果西方没有被冷战结束和9/11转移注意力,是不是民粹主义就可以被避免?

But the big question we face today is this: Is it too late? Has the West lost everything? And my answer is that it's not too late. It is possible for the West to recover and come back in strength. And using the Western art of reasoning, I would recommend that the West adopt a new "three-m" strategy: minimalist, multilateral and Machiavellian.

但是目前我们面对的最大的问题是:现在是不是太晚了?西方已经失去了一切了吗?我的答案则是还不算太晚。西方恢复并回到强盛时期是有可能的。利用西方的推理艺术,我会推荐西方采用一个新“3M”策略:极简主义,多边主义和马基雅弗利主义。

Why minimalist? Now even though Western domination has ended, the West continues to intervene and interfere in the affairs of many other societies.

为什么是极简主义?尽管西方统治时期已经结束,西方仍然插手和干预了多国内政。

This is unwise. This is generating anger and resentment, especially in Islamic societies. It's also draining the resources and spirits of Western societies. Now I know that the Islamic world is having difficulties modernizing.

这是不明智的。这引发了愤怒和怨恨,尤其是宗族社会。这同样也在消耗西方社会的资源和精神。我知道现在宗族世界面临着现代化进程的困难。

It will have to find its way, but it's more likely to do so if it is left alone to do so. Now I can say this with some conviction because I come from a region, Southeast Asia, which has almost as many Muslims as the Arab world. 266 million Muslims.

尽管它会找到自己的路,但如果让它独立发展会更有可能成功。我能够有信心的说这句话,是因为我来自东南亚地区,那里有着和阿拉伯世界同样数量的Muslims,有2.66亿。

Southeast Asia is also one of the most diverse continents on planet earth, because you also have 146 million Christians, 149 million Buddhists -- Mahayana Buddhists and Hinayana Buddhists and you also have millions of Taoists and Confucianists and Hindus and even communists.

东南亚是这个地球上最多样化的地区之一,因为那里还有1.46亿基督徒,1.49亿佛教徒--大乘佛教徒和小乘佛教徒,并且还有数以百万计的道教,儒家和印度教徒,甚至共产党员。

And once known as "the Balkans of Asia," southeast Asia today should be experiencing a clash of civilizations. Instead, what you see in southeast Asia is one of the most peaceful and prosperous corners of planet earth with the second-most successful regional multilateral organization, ASEAN. So clearly, minimalism can work. The West should try it out.

这里曾经被称为“亚洲巴尔干半岛”,现在应该正在经历文明冲突。相反,你在东南亚看到的是这个地球最和平和繁荣的角落之一,有着第二大成功的地区性多边组织,东盟。很明显,极简主义是可行的。西方应该试一下。

But I'm also aware that minimalism cannot solve all the problems. There are some hard problems that have to be dealt with: Al-Qaeda, ISIS -- they remain dangerous threats. They must be found, they must be destroyed. The question is, is it wise for the West, which represents 12 percent of the world's population -- yes, 12 percent to fight these threats on its own or to fight with the remaining 88 percent of the world's population?

但是我也意识到极简主义并不能解决所有问题。有一些很困难的问题需要被处理--反对组织,ISIS--它们仍然是危险的威胁。它们必须得被发现,必须被摧毁。但问题是这对西方是否明智,西方只占全球人口的12%--是的,12%,西方是独自与这些威胁斗争,还是与剩下88%的全球人口共同战斗?

And the logical and rational answer is that you should work with the remaining 88 percent. Now where does one go if you want to get the support of humanity? There's only one place: the United Nations.

符合逻辑和理性的答案是,你应该和剩下的88%一起战斗。现在如果你想获得人类的支持,你应该去哪里呢?那只有一个地方:联合国。

Now I've been ambassador to the UN twice. Maybe that makes me a bit biased, but I can tell you that working with the UN can lead to success. Why is it that the first Iraq war, fought by President George H. W. Bush, succeeded? While the second Iraq war, fought by his son, President George W. Bush, failed?

我曾两次担任驻联合国大使。可能这会让我带点偏见,但我可以告诉你们跟联合国合作可以通往成功。为什么乔治·H·W·布什发动的第一次伊拉克战争会取得成功?而由他的儿子乔治·W·布什发动的第二次伊拉克战争会失败?

One key reason is that the senior Bush went to the UN to get the support of the global community before fighting the war in Iraq. So multilateralism works. There's another reason why we have to work with the UN. The world is shrinking. We are becoming a small, interdependent, global village.

一个关键的原因在于,老布什在发动伊拉克战争前,曾来到联合国寻找全球群体的支持。所以多边主义获得了成功。还有另一个我们为什么必须和联合国合作的理由。世界在缩小。我们正在成为一个小的、相互依存的地球村。

All villages need village councils. And the only global village counsel we have, as the late UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said, is the UN. Now as a geopolitical analyst, I do know that it's often considered naive to work with the UN. So now let me inject my Machiavellian point.

所有的村子都需要村委会。而我们唯一拥有的全球村委会,正如已故联合国秘书长科菲·安南所说,是联合国。作为一个地缘政治分析家,我确实知道人们通常认为和联合国合作是幼稚的。那么现在让我把马基雅维利式的观点装进来。

Now Machiavelli is a figure who's often derided in the West, but the liberal philosopher Isaiah Berlin reminded us that the goal of Machiavelli was to promote virtue, not evil. So what is the Machiavellian point? It's this: what is the best way for the West to constrain the new rising powers that are emerging?

马基雅维利是一个经常被西方嘲笑的人物,但自由派哲学家以赛亚·伯林提醒我们,马基雅维利的目标是宣扬美德,而不是邪恶。所以马基雅维利的观点是什么?对于西方来说,约束正在崛起的新兴大国的最佳方式是什么?

And the answer is that the best way to constrain them is through multilateral rules and multilateral norms, multilateral institutions and multilateral processes. Now let me conclude with one final, big message. As a longtime friend of the West, I'm acutely aware of how pessimistic Western societies have become.

约束他们的最好方式是通过多边规则和多边规范、多边机构和多边流程。现在让我用最后一句重要的信息来总结一下。作为一个西方世界的老朋友,我敏锐地意识到西方世界已经变得多么悲观。

Many in the West don't believe that a great future lies ahead for them, that their children will not have better lives. So please do not fear the future or the rest of the world. Now I can say this with some conviction, because as a Hindu Sindhi, I actually feel a direct cultural connection with society's diverse cultures and societies all the way from Tehran to Tokyo.

在西方世界的很多人不相信前面还有美好的未来,他们的孩子不会有更好的生活。所以请不要害怕未来,或害怕世界其他国家。我可以满怀信心地说,作为一个印度信德人,从德黑兰到东京,我都能切实感受到与社会多元文化和群体的直接文化联系。

And more than half of humanity lives in this space, so with this direct cultural connection, I can say with great conviction that if the West chooses to adopt a wiser strategy of being minimalist, multilateral and Machiavellian, the rest of the world will be happy to work with the West.

地球上超过一半的人生活在这个空间中,所以通过这种直接的文化联系,我可以满怀信心地说,如果西方选择采取一种更明智的策略,成为极简主义者、多边主义者和马基雅维利主义者,那么世界其他国家将乐于与西方世界合作。

So a great future lies ahead for humanity. Let's embrace it together.

人类的美好未来就在前方。让我们共同拥抱它吧。

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