F最终进入了气候政治
The F-Word Finally Enters Climate Politics
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2019-11-29 21:11
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火星译客

In CNN’s recent climate crisis town hall, fossil fuels—and the industry that produces them—were mentioned 153 times. Julián Castro committed to banning oil and gas drilling on public lands. Andew Yang supported a ban on offshore oil drilling. Kamala Harris promised to hold the fossil fuel industry accountable for its decades of climate deception. Bernie Sanders pledged to end fossil fuel subsidies and provide a just transition for displaced workers. Elizabeth Warren reiterated the importance of eliminating the corruptive political influence of fossil fuel companies.

CNN最近发布的《气候危机市政厅》中,化石燃料——以及生产化石燃料的行业——被提到了153次。朱利安·卡斯特罗承诺禁止在公共土地上开采石油和天然气。杨安迪支持禁止近海石油钻探。卡玛拉•哈里斯承诺要让化石燃料行业为其数十年的气候欺诈负责。伯尼•桑德斯承诺结束化石燃料补贴,为失业工人提供一个公平的过渡。伊丽莎白·沃伦重申了消除化石燃料公司腐败政治影响的重要性。

This emerging focus on the supply of fossil fuels—compared to the usual fixation on consumer demand and greenhouse gas emissions—goes beyond debate rhetoric. Most candidates have now put forward climate plans that include a multitude of supply-focused policies. Even four years ago, it would have been unthinkable to see mainstream politicians outbidding one another on their commitments to phase out fossil fuel production and hold the industry legally, financially and morally accountable. (Bernie Sanders has been a notable exception that proves the rule.)

通常,人们关注消费者需求和温室气体排放,但与此相比,对化石燃料供应的关注已经超出了辩论的范畴。大多数候选人现在已经提出了气候计划,其中包括许多以供应为重点的政策。即便是在四年前,主流政界人士在逐步淘汰化石燃料生产、在法律、财务和道德上对化石燃料行业负责的承诺上,相互开价超过对方也是不可想象的。(伯尼·桑德斯是一个明显的例外,证明了这一点。)

A focus on fossil fuel supply in climate politics is long overdue. “The largest, most extraordinary, and damaging misframing” in climate policy, climate communication specialist George Marshall observes, has been that the problem “could be defined entirely and exclusively as a problem of gases.” Never in the 25 years of international climate negotiations, including the Paris climate accord, has there “been a single proposal, debate or even position paper on limiting fossil fuel production.” Unlike every other issue—overfishing, illegal logging, drug smuggling, or smoking, say—when it comes to tackling climate change, U.S. politicians have rarely talked about keeping fossil fuels in the ground. Until now.

气候政治中对化石燃料供应的关注早该出现。气候传播专家乔治·马歇尔指出,气候政策中“最大、最不寻常、最具破坏性的错误框架”是,这个问题“可以完全地被定义为气体问题”。在包括《巴黎气候协定》在内的25年国际气候谈判中,从未出现过“一份关于限制化石燃料生产的提案、辩论甚至立场文件”。直到现在,与其他问题不同——比如过度捕捞、非法砍伐、毒品走私或吸烟——在应对气候变化问题上,美国的政治家们很少谈及禁止开采地下的化石燃料。

Climate change is a problem of coal, oil and gas supply as well as demand, for several reasons. First, fossil fuels are responsible for over the majority of greenhouse gas emissions. As scientists have been warning for years, holding global warming well below the Paris Agreement’s 2 degree Celsius limit means that we simply cannot burn the majority of existing fossil fuel reserves—those already on the books of investor- and state-owned companies.

气候变化是煤炭、石油、天然气供应以及需求的问题,原因有几个。首先,化石燃料是排放温室气体的主要来源。正如科学家们多年来一直警告的那样,将全球变暖控制在远低于《巴黎协定》2摄氏度上限的水平,意味着我们根本无法燃烧现有的大部分化石燃料储备——那些已经在投资者名册上的储备——以及国有企业。

Yet the carbon majors continue to spend hundreds of billions of dollars every year searching for new fossil fuels that the world can never afford to burn. Meanwhile, many countries continue to support fossil fuel production despite stated ambitions to cut greenhouse gas emissions, creating a “production gap” that widens the “emissions gap” between current climate pledges and the Paris Agreement goals. This, in turn, could lead to what economists and financial experts call stranded fossil fuel assets: a multitrillion dollar “carbon bubble” waiting to burst. No wonder $11 trillion of global assets have already been divested from fossil fuels.

然而,碳巨头们每年仍在花费数千亿美元寻找新的化石燃料,而这些燃料是全世界永远也烧不起的。与此同时,尽管有削减温室气体排放的雄心,但许多国家仍继续支持化石燃料的生产,造成了“生产缺口”,扩大了当前气候承诺与《巴黎协定》目标之间的“排放缺口”。这进而可能导致经济学家和金融专家所说的搁浅的化石燃料资产:一个等待破裂的数万亿美元的“碳泡沫”。难怪已经有11万亿美元的全球资产从化石燃料中剥离出来。

Moreover, as a growing number of scholars, policymakers and activists have observed, the fossil fuel industry’s stranglehold on politics is a fundamental bottleneck to serious climate action. Fossil fuel interests have spent—and continue to spend—hundreds of millions of dollars deliberately misleading the public and stifling policy through disinformation and lobbying. 

此外,正如越来越多的学者、政策制定者和活动人士所观察到的,化石燃料行业对政治的钳制是严重的气候行动的根本瓶颈。化石燃料的利益集团已经花费——并继续花费——数亿美元故意误导公众,通过虚假信息和游说来扼杀相关政策。

These are all reasons why fossil fuels must take center stage in any serious climate plan. It’s also worth remembering—and probably helpful for politicians to remind voters—that besides a collapsing climate, the extraction of coal, oil, and gas is associated with air and water pollution, worker safety hazards, social and environmental injustices and habitat destruction. 

这些都是化石燃料必须在任何严肃的气候计划中占据中心位置的原因。同样值得记住的是,除了气候崩溃,煤炭、石油和天然气的开采还与大气污染、水污染、工人安全隐患、社会和环境不公以及栖息地破坏有关。

It is no accident that fossil fuels are becoming a political pariah. Many candidates have undoubtedly taken inspiration from climate champion Jay Inslee’s comprehensive and supply-centric plan. Yet the shift in political momentum is also the product of longer-term forces. 

化石燃料成为政治上的弃儿并非偶然。毫无疑问,许多候选人都从杰伊•英斯利以供应为中心的全面计划中获得了灵感。然而,政治势头的转变也是长期力量的产物。

First, it is the result of activism. From fossil fuel divestment, to “blockadia” (civil disobedience targeting fossil fuel infrastructure), to the #NoFossilFuelMoneyPledge that candidates are being held to by the Sunrise Movement, to shareholders demanding that companies demonstrate that they comply with the Paris Agreement (and exposing that they don’t), grassroots movements have worked to reframe the climate narrative as not just a technocratic problem about greenhouse gases, but also a moral problem about fossil fuels. 

首先,它是激进主义的结果。从化石燃料撤资,“blockadia”(非暴力反抗针对化石燃料基础设施),候选人被关押的# NoFossilFuelMoneyPledge日出运动,要求公司向股东证明他们符合《巴黎协议》(他们不公开),草根运动努力重塑气候叙事作为温室气体不仅是技术问题,也是一个有关化石燃料的道德问题。

Second, grassroots voices have been complemented by economic warnings—and divestment decisions—from many of the world’s foremost investors and finance experts. Recently, for example, market analysts reported that in the past year alone, “all major oil and gas companies have approved projects that are not consistent with the Paris goals.” More than 90 percent of ExxonMobil’s potential spending on new projects through 2030 would be stranded in a low-carbon world. 

其次,经济警告和撤资决定补充了草根阶层的声音,这些警告来自世界上许多最重要的投资者和金融专家。例如,市场分析师最近报告称,仅在过去一年,“所有主要石油和天然气公司都批准了与《巴黎协议》目标不一致的项目。”到2030年,埃克森美孚在新项目上的潜在支出,将有90%以上滞留在低碳世界。

Third is the underlying science and policy. From climate scientists showing that existing fossil fuel reserves already exceed the global carbon budget, to political scientists suggesting that smart climate action requires addressing both demand and supply, to the academics and NGOs carrying these messages to decision-makers, a small but dedicated group of researchers are helping to rewrite how we approach the climate crisis.

第三是潜在的科学和政策。气候科学家表明现有的化石燃料储备已经超过全球碳预算,政治科学家表明智能气候行动需要解决需求和供给,携带这些消息的学者和非政府组织的决策者,一个小小的专门组研究人员正在帮助改写我们面对气候危机的方式。

Finally, investigative journalists and scholars have begun to uncover skeletons in the fossil fuel industry’s closet, informing dozens of lawsuits seeking to hold companies accountable for not just climate damages, but their denial and delay too. Most damning have been discoveries of internal memos showing that the fossil fuel industry has known about the potential global warming dangers of its products for 60 years. CNN’s Kevin Anderson cited research by one of us when he asked Joe Biden: “Will you hold fossil fuel corporations and executives who have lied to the public accountable?”

最后,调查记者和学者已经开始揭露化石燃料行业的秘密,他们发现了数十起诉讼,诉讼不仅要求企业为气候损害负责、而且要求企业否认和拖延责任。最糟糕的是内部备忘录的发现,这些备忘录显示,化石燃料行业60年来一直对其产品潜在的全球变暖危险有所了解。美国有线电视新闻网的凯文•安德森引用了我们其中一人的研究,他问乔•拜登:“你会让向公众撒谎的化石燃料公司和高管承担责任吗?”

The U.S. is currently the world’s top oil and gas producer, and one of the leading laggards on climate action under the Trump administration’s pro–fossil fuel agenda. Yet by bringing fossil fuels into the picture, Democrats may be onto a winning climate narrative—for the election and Green New Deal legislation: Building a healthier, safer, thriving clean energy economy (which Americans love) by making fossil fuel polluters (which Americans love less) pay for their damages, denial and delay. 

美国目前是全球最大的石油和天然气生产国,也是特朗普政府支持化石燃料议程下气候行动的主要落后者之一。然而,通过将化石燃料纳入考虑范围,民主党人可能会在气候问题上取得胜利——选举和绿色新政立法:通过让化石燃料污染者(美国人不太喜欢)为他们的破坏、否认和拖延买单,建立一种更健康、更安全、更繁荣的清洁能源经济模式(这是美国人喜欢的)。

Supply-focused policies could come in many forms, including setting explicit climate targets based on tons of oil, coal and gas extracted; ending all fossil fuel production subsidies; banning or restricting production; suing the fossil fuel industry for the damages and deaths attributable to its products and obstructionism; rejecting all fossil fuel campaign contributions; clamping down on the fossil fuel industry’s lobbying and its revolving door with government; and creating just economic opportunities for fossil fuel–dependent communities. 

以供应为重点的政策可以有多种形式,包括根据开采的石油、煤炭和天然气的吨数设定明确的气候目标;停止所有化石燃料生产补贴;禁止或者限制生产;对化石燃料行业产品和蓄意阻挠造成的损害和死亡提起诉讼;拒绝所有化石燃料竞选捐款;打击化石燃料行业的游说活动及其与政府之间的“旋转门”;为依赖化石燃料的社区创造经济机会。

We think that politicians who truly understand what it takes to tackle the climate crisis will not shy away from including supply-focused measures in their policy tool kit.

我们认为,真正理解如何应对气候危机的政治家不会回避将以供应为重点的措施纳入他们的政策。

The views expressed in this commentary belong to the authors.

本评注所表达的观点仅代表作者个人。

The views expressed are those of the author(s) and are not necessarily those of Scientific American.

所表达的观点是作者的观点,不一定是《科学美国人》的观点。

ABOUT THE AUTHOR(S)

作者

Geoffrey Supran

杰弗里·苏普兰

Geoffrey Supran is a research associate at Harvard University investigating the history of climate denial by the fossil fuel industry with Naomi Oreskes. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffreySupran.

杰弗里·苏普兰是哈佛大学的助理研究员,他与内奥米·奥雷斯克斯一起调查了化石燃料行业否认气候变化的历史。在推特上可以关注他@GeoffreySupran。

Ploy Achakulwisut

Ploy Achakulwisut

Ploy Achakulwisut, PhD, is a scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute researching how fossil fuel supply can be aligned with climate goals. Follow her on Twitter @_aploy.

Ploy Achakulwisut博士是斯德哥尔摩环境研究所的一名科学家,研究如何使化石燃料供应与气候目标相一致。在推特上可以关注她@_aploy。

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