科技或将有助于维持第四季度的股价
Tech might help sustain shares in fourth quarter
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2019-10-09 11:32
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火星译客

Technology shares may lead Chinese equities higher to stand out among global financial assets in the fourth quarter, but uncertainties surrounding trade tensions with the United States may complicate any potential uptrend, analysts said.

分析师表示,科技股可能引领中国股市在第四季度走高,在全球金融资产中脱颖而出,但围绕与美国贸易紧张局势的不确定性可能使任何潜在的上升趋势复杂化。

"We continue to believe that emerging market equities, in general, are relatively attractive investments and that leading EM equities will be Chinese equities," said Daniel Gerard, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street Global Market, a US-based global investment research and trading services provider.

位于美国的全球投资研究与交易机构道富环球市场(State Street Global Markets)的高级多资产策略师丹尼尔·杰拉德(Daniel Gerard)表示:"我们仍然认为,总体而言,新兴市场股票是相对有吸引力的投资,而领先的新兴市场股票将是中国股票。"

"We expect a positive fourth quarter for China's A shares with a caveat," Gerard said. His forecast is predicated on further economic stimulus from Beijing, progress toward a Sino-US tariff resolution and global central banks' coordinated liquidity support that will manage to assuage any slowdown.

杰拉德说:“我们预计中国A股第四季度将出现积极增长。”他的预测是基于北京方面将出台进一步的经济刺激措施,中美关税解决方案的进展,以及各国央行将设法缓解经济放缓的协同流动性支持。

The caveat of this forecast mainly derives from possible twists and turns in the resolution of trade tensions, he said.

他说,这一预测的警告主要来自解决贸易紧张局势的可能曲折情况。

Technology firms have the potential of being outperformers among A shares given the sector's long-run strong prospects amid China's economic upgrading, Gerard said.

杰拉德说,鉴于中国经济升级带来的长期强劲发展前景,科技公司有潜力在A股中跑赢大盘。

Near-term downside sector risks stemming from US tariffs and slower global growth, however, should be watched, he added.

不过,他补充称,应密切关注美国关税和全球增长放缓带来的短期下行风险。

Valuations of technology shares related to 5G infrastructure and consumer electronics are still "reasonable", considering the two sectors' foreseeable earnings growth over the next two years, said a Beijing-based portfolio manager who declined to be named.

一位不愿透露姓名的驻北京的投资组合经理表示,考虑到这两个领域在未来两年内可预见的收益增长,与5G基础设施和消费类电子产品相关的技术股份的估值仍然“合理”。

Further monetary easing could be expected over the rest of the year, which will boost risk appetite and benefit high-growth tech firms, he said, adding that the opportunity window for adding exposure to the two sectors should open if the market sees downward adjustment.

他表示,预计今年余下时间将进一步放宽货币政策,这将提振风险偏好,并令高成长科技企业受益。他补充说,如果市场出现向下调整,增加对这两个行业敞口的机会之窗将打开。

During the July-September period, the Shenzhen, Guangdong province-based ChiNext — which is heavy with innovative and growth enterprises — rose 7.68 percent to 1,627.55 points, with subindexes tracking sectors of semiconductor and electronics rising 20 percent and 16 percent, respectively, according to financial information provider Wind Info.

据金融信息提供商--Wind Info信息在7月至9月期间,总部位于深圳的广东省创业板(ChiNext)上涨7.68%,至1,627.55点,该地区拥有大量创新和成长型企业,其中追踪半导体和电子行业的子指数分别增长20%和16%。

Over the same period, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.47 percent to 2,905.19 points, after retreating from a 11-week intraday high on Sept 16.

同期,基准上证综合指数从9月16日的11周高点回落,跌幅为2.47%,至2,905.19点。

The market retreat in late September partly reflected mild disappointment over cautious easing measures by the People's Bank of China, the central bank, and investors cutting exposure before the long National Day holiday, said Wendy Liu, head of China Strategy at UBS Investment Research.

瑞银投资研究(UBS Investment Research)中国策略负责人刘文迪(Wendy Liu)表示,9月下旬股市回落,一定程度上反映出市场对中国央行的谨慎宽松措施以及投资者在国庆长假前减持的失望情绪。

Looking at the fourth quarter, investors are hopeful that the new lending reference rate will continue to decrease, which should help repair margins and potentially restore valuations of some stocks that face large interest expense payments, Liu said.

刘表示,从第四季度开始,投资者希望新增贷款de 参考利率可继续下降,这将有助于修复利润率,并有可能恢复一些面临巨额利息支出的股票的估值。

As the market reopens on Tuesday, investors will grapple with fluctuations in overseas stock markets over the holiday and await progress in upcoming Sino-US trade talks and third-quarter earnings results.

随着周二股市重新开市,投资者将努力应对节日期间海外股市的波动,并等待即将到来的中美贸易谈判和第三季度财报的取得进展。

Recent overseas fluctuations are not likely to exert a major impact on A shares as the slide of US stocks was limited, said Ricky Zhong, a fund manager at iMeigu Capital Management.

iMeigu Capital Management的基金经理Ricky Zhong表示,由于美国股市的跌幅有限,近期的海外波动不太可能对A股产生重大影响。

US stocks tumbled in the first two trading days of October amid recession concerns and trade tensions between the US and the European Union. The market recovered later, with the S&P 500 ending the week 0.33 percent lower at 2,952.01 points.

受经济衰退忧虑以及美国与欧盟之间的贸易紧张关系影响,美国股市在10月的前两个交易日大幅下挫。市场随后回升,标准普尔500指数一周下跌0.33%,至2,952.01点。

Vice-Premier Liu He is about to lead the Chinese delegation to Washington for the 13th round of the China-US high-level economic and trade consultations in the week following the National Day holiday, according to the Ministry of Commerce.

据商务部称,国务院副总理刘鹤将率领中国代表团前往华盛顿,参加将在国庆长假后的一周举行的的第十三轮中美高层经贸磋商。

Ahead of the resumption of trade talks, the US administration was reported by Bloomberg to be considering policies restricting portfolio investment in Chinese equities. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro told CNBC on Sept 30 that over half of the report "was highly inaccurate or simply flat-out false".

彭博社(Bloomberg)报道,在恢复贸易谈判之前,美国政府正在考虑限制对中国股票进行证券投资的政策。白宫贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗(Peter Navarro)在9月30日接受CNBC采访时表示,报告的一半以上“非常不准确或完全是虚假的”。

白宫贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗(PeterNavarro)在9月30日,超过一半的报告"非常不准确,或者只是直截了当"。

Such restrictions, if taken, may weigh on A-share investor sentiment in the short term but are not likely to cause any major disruptions considering the limited US holdings in A-share assets, said Dong Dengxin, director of Wuhan University of Science and Technology's Finance and Securities Institute.

武汉科技大学金融与证券研究所所长董登新表示,如果采取这种限制措施,短期内可能会打压A股投资者的情绪,但考虑到美国持有的A股资产有限,不太可能造成任何重大干扰。

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