There Have Been Two Times in History Stocks Have Been This Expensive: 1929 and 2000
历史上有两次股市如此昂贵:1929年和2000年
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2019-08-11 19:05
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The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high on July 26, lifting gains for the year to 20.7%, the best performance for the first seven months in 22 years, and within a whisker of beating that 1997 record of 21.5%. That breakout is wonderful for folks who showed the grit to stay invested during the big downdraft late last year. But the explosion in prices has made a longstanding problem worse: High prices today mean puny gains tomorrow.

标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)在7月26日创下历史新高,今年以来的涨幅达到20.7%,为22年来头7个月的最佳表现,距离1997年21.5%的纪录仅咫尺之遥。这一突破对于那些在去年年底的大衰退中表现出坚持投资的勇气的人来说是美妙的。但价格的暴涨使一个长期存在的问题变得更糟:今天的高价意味着明天的收益微不足道。

From these levels, what returns can investors reasonably expect?

从这些水平来看,投资者能够合理预期的回报率是多少?

The price-to-earnings ratio for the S&P 500, based on the last four quarters of net earnings, now sits at 22.5, up from 18.9 at the close of the fourth quarter. That multiple stands well above the average of 19 for the last two decades, not to mention the reading of around 16 over the past century. Multiple expansion as a source of gains seems tapped out. The market's P/E has been stuck in the low-20s, except for the brief drop in late 2018, for the past four years.

标准普尔500指数过去四个季度的净利润市盈率目前为22.5倍,高于第四季度末的18.9倍。这一倍数远高于过去20年19倍的平均水平,更不用说过去一个世纪16倍左右的读数了。作为收益来源的多重扩张似乎已经耗尽。过去四年,除了2018年末的短暂下跌,该市场的市盈率一直停留在20多倍左右。

What's driven prices skyward is an historic explosion in earnings. S&P 500 earnings-per-share have jumped 47% from mid-2015 to Q2 of this year, to a record of $134.39 in Q1. Don't count on earnings growth to provide much more fuel. Profits appear in a near-bubble. They account for 9.5% of national income, versus the long-term average of 7.5%, and operating margins are running 9.41%, one-quarter higher than when the economy regained its mojo in mid-2016.

推动价格飙升的是利润的历史性爆炸式增长。从2015年年中到今年第二季度,标准普尔500指数每股收益增长了47%,达到创纪录的134.39美元。不要指望盈利增长能提供更多动力。利润似乎近乎泡沫。它们占国民收入的9.5%,而长期平均水平为7.5%,营业利润率为9.41%,比2016年年中经济恢复活力时高出25%。

Profits are already slowing. The latest survey of analysts by research firm Factset forecasts a year-over-year decline in Q2 of 1.5%, following a flat first quarter. So given their already gargantuan size, and the current downward drift, don't count on big profit gains to propel share prices.

利润已经在放缓。研究公司Factset对分析师进行的最新调查预计,继第一季度持平后,第二季度的同比降幅为1.5%。因此,考虑到它们已经庞大的规模和目前的下跌趋势,不要指望利润的大幅增长能推动股价上涨。

Since markets are hitting the wall on both multiple expansion and profit growth, the best hope is that P/Es remain where they are, and profits advance at a far more moderate pace than the fantastic gains since 2015.

由于市场在多重扩张和利润增长上都遇到了瓶颈,因此最好的希望是市盈率保持在目前水平,利润的增长速度要比2015年以来的惊人增长慢得多。

Bear with us: A crucial number is the current earnings yield. That's the ratio of the earnings a company generates each year to its market value—in other words, the dollars in profits investors are getting for each dollar they pay. (The earnings yield—earnings divided by price—is the inverse of the P/E, price over earnings.) At today's 22.5 P/E, the current earnings yield is around 4.5%, plus inflation that's running at 1.5%, for a total of roughly 6%. If the market multiple stays where it is at 22.5, future returns––in the form of dividends, buybacks and capital gains––will total 6%. That's the market math.

请耐心听我们说:一个至关重要的数字是当前的收益收益率。这是一家公司每年产生的利润与市值之比——换句话说,投资者每支付一美元,就能获得一美元的利润。(收益收益除以价格是市盈率的倒数,即市盈率除以收益。)以目前22.5倍的市盈率计算,当前的收益收益率约为4.5%,加上1.5%的通胀率,总体约为6%。如果市场市盈率保持在22.5倍,未来的回报(股息、回购和资本利得)将达到6%。这就是市场数学。

But even that modest number is probably too high. That's because earnings are now hovering at such etherial heights that economic gravity is likely to force them downwards. Yale economist Robert Shiller favors a more realistic P/E called the cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio, or CAPE, which uses a 10 year average of inflation-adjusted profits as the denominator in his P/E. That methodology smooths the peaks and valleys in profits that can make stocks look artificially cheap or pricey. Shiller's adjusted P/E right now? 31. It's only been that lofty twice, just before the 1929 market crash, and in the run-up to the dot.com bubble in 2000. The Shiller P/E's message: High multiples on top of inflated profits equals low future returns.

但即使是这个适度的数字也可能过高。这是因为,目前企业盈利如此虚幻,以至于经济引力可能会迫使它们下降。耶鲁大学(Yale)经济学家席勒(Robert Shiller)倾向于一种更为现实的市盈率,即周期调整市盈率(CAPE)。这种方法会抹平利润的波峰和波谷,而利润波峰和波谷会让股票看起来人为地便宜或昂贵。席勒现在调整后的市盈率是多少?31。在1929年股市崩盘之前和2000年互联网泡沫爆发前,这一数字只出现过两次。席勒的市盈率传递的信息是:在膨胀的利润之上的高市盈率等于未来的低回报。

If we use the Shiller multiple, the earnings yield, and the expected return, drops from 6% to 4.7% (that's the inverse of the 31 P/E plus 1.5% inflation). Soaring earnings won't keep bailing out the market. You can have high valuations and high returns for a while, but the high returns don't last. Eventually, rich valuations are bad for tomorrow's gains, and today's valuations, as the Shiller numbers show, are even richer than they appear. Keep in mind that maintaining today's P/Es is a best case scenarios. If earnings growth keeps slowing, and P/Es drop as well, stock prices will follow.

如果我们使用席勒乘数,收益收益率和预期收益将从6%下降到4.7%(这是31倍市盈率加上1.5%通胀率的倒数)。不断飙升的利润不会继续拯救市场。你可以在一段时间内拥有高估值和高回报,但高回报不会持久。最终,过高的估值不利于未来的收益,而如今的估值,正如席勒的数据所显示的,甚至比看上去还要高。请记住,维持当前的市盈率是最好的情况。如果盈利增长继续放缓,市盈率也会下降,那么股价也会随之下跌。

Until then, take the advice Wall Street won't give you: Downsize your expectations.

在那之前,接受华尔街不会给你的建议:降低期望值。

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Don't miss the daily Term Sheet, Fortune's newsletter on deals and dealmakers.

不要错过《财富》(Fortune)有关交易和交易撮合者的时事通讯《每日投资意向书》(daily Term Sheet)。

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