是的,股票被高估了。但是高估了多少呢?
Yes Stocks Are Overvalued. But by How Much?
632字
2019-08-11 19:19
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火星译客

Robert Shiller's cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio has only breached 30 three times in history.

罗伯特•希勒(Robert Shiller)的经周期调整市盈率(CAPE)历史上仅三次突破了30。

The first time was in 1929, just a few short months before the stock market was trounced in one of the worst crashes in history during the Great Depression. Almost 70 years later, it happened again in 1997 and stayed above that level for nearly 5 years as the dot-com bubble deflated. The most recent flirtation with a CAPE of 30 began in the summer of 2017, where it has remained in a tight range ever since.

第一次是在1929年,就在股市遭受大萧条(Great Depression)期间史上最严重崩盘之一重创的短短几个月前。近70年后,它在1997年再次发生,并在互联网泡沫破灭后的近5年里一直保持在这一水平之上。最近一次CAPE为30是在2017年夏天,从那以后一直保持在窄幅范围内波动。

This could be a scary proposition for those who use market history as a guide. The Great Depression saw stocks fall almost 90%. After the CAPE reached 30 in the late-1990s, tech stocks continued to inflate the market bubble as the S&P 500 rose 85% but it was eventually chopped in half from 2000-2002.

对于那些以市场的历史信息为指导的人来说,这可能是一个可怕的提议。大萧条期间,股市下跌了近90%。上世纪90年代末CAPE达到30后,科技股继续吹大市场泡沫,标准普尔500指数(S&P 500)上涨85%,但最终从2000年至2002年下跌了一半。

Market valuations are an important input into the investing process. But the relationship between the markets and valuations is far from perfect and requires context when thinking about what sky-high valuations mean for today's investor.

市场估值是投资过程中的一项重要投入。但市场与估值之间的关系远非完美,在考虑极高的估值对当今投资者意味着什么时,需要有一定的背景。

Interest rates and inflation matter

利率和通胀很重要

There is a case to be made that valuations should be higher these days because of the economic environment. Interest rates have been low for going on a decade now and inflation is basically non-existent. When interest rates and inflation are low, valuations tend to be higher.

有理由认为,由于经济环境的原因,目前的估值应该更高。10年来,利率一直处于低位,通胀基本上不存在。当利率和通胀率较低时,估值往往较高。

This makes sense when you consider higher interest rates, and thus inflation makes for a higher hurdle rate for investing in the stock market. When rates and inflation are lower, that hurdle rate should also drop. This doesn't mean valuations or stocks have to stay high, but if interest rates and inflation remain subdued, the stock market should have higher valuations attached to it.

当你考虑到更高的利率时,这是有道理的,因此,通货膨胀使得投资股票市场的门槛更高。当利率和通胀率较低时,最低预期回报率也应下降。这并不意味着估值或股票必须保持高位,但如果利率和通胀保持低位,股市的估值就应该更高。

The stock market is different

股市则不同

Professor Shiller's data goes back to 1871 but much of it was pieced together from historical data that was created after the fact. The S&P 500 was actually only formed in 1957.

席勒教授的数据可以追溯到1871年,但大部分数据都是根据1871年后的历史数据拼凑而成的。标准普尔500指数实际上是1957年才成立的。

The original index was comprised of 425 industrial stocks, 60 utility names, and 15 railroads. It wasn't until the mid-1970s that financials were added to the mix. And it took until the late-1980s for Standard & Poors to adopt the current model that's more diversified and amenable to the make-up of the economy.

最初的指数由425只工业股票、60家公用事业公司和15家铁路公司组成。直到上世纪70年代中期,金融类股才被纳入其中。直到上世纪80年代末,标准普尔才采用了目前更为多样化、更适应经济构成的模式。

Historical data is all we've got to understand how the stock market has functioned and performed over time but it's always going to be an imperfect substitute for precisely understanding what's going on in today's landscape. Each environment is unique.

历史数据是我们了解股票市场如何运作和表现的全部,但它总是不能完美地代替准确地了解今天的情况。每个环境都是独特的。

Setting expectations

设定期望值

Valuations can be helpful for setting reasonable expectations for investors because higher valuations typically lead to long-term returns while lower valuations typically lead to higher long-term returns.

估值有助于为投资者设定合理的预期,因为较高的估值通常会带来长期回报,而较低的估值通常会带来较高的长期回报。

Going back to 1926, the average 10-year return on the S&P 500 is roughly 10.4% per year. When the CAPE ratio was below 10, the average return jumps to more than 18% per year. But when the CAPE was 25 or higher, the average 10-year return falls to just 4.2% per year. So the fact that valuations are stretched today means investors should likely rein in their performance expectations.

回顾1926年,标普500指数10年平均回报率约为每年10.4%。当CAPE低于10时,平均年回报率跃升至18%以上。但当CAPE达到25或更高时,10年期的平均回报率降至每年4.2%。因此,如今估值过高的事实意味着,投资者应该控制自己的业绩预期。

However, it's also worth noting the range of outcomes investors have experienced within overvalued markets. The worst 10-year return when the CAPE was above 25 was an annual loss of nearly 5% per year while the best 10-year return was 9.3% per year.

然而,值得注意的是,投资者在估值过高的市场中所经历的一系列后果。CAPE高于25时,10年期最差回报率为每年近5%,而10年期最佳回报率为每年9.3%。

So even if valuations remain higher because the composition of the sectors in the stock market have changed or interest rates remain historically low, investors should still temper their expectations about expected long-term returns. Valuations are not a timing tool in terms of calling a market crash but they can help investors set reasonable expectations about the range of future outcomes.

因此,即使由于股市板块的构成发生了变化,或者利率仍处于历史低位,导致估值继续走高,投资者仍应降低对预期长期回报的预期。估值不是预测市场崩盘的时间工具,但它可以帮助投资者对未来的一系列结果设定合理的预期。

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