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摩根士丹利警告经济衰退,称美联储降息可能为时已晚

Morgan Stanley Warns Of Recession, Says Fed Rate Cut Might Be Too Late
摩根士丹利警告经济衰退,称美联储降息可能为时已晚
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2019-07-23 14:12
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摩根士丹利警告经济衰退,称美联储降息可能为时已晚

Any interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve, including the one widely expected next week, won’t save the U.S. economy from a recession over the next year, warns Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)警告说,美国联邦储备委员会(fed,简称:美联储)的任何降息举措,包括外界普遍预期的下周的降息举措,都不会在明年将美国经济从衰退中拯救出来。

The next recession will start as a demand shock, according to Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. economist. Zentner said the current “credible bear case” probability is about 20 percent, but that might change quickly depending on the track ongoing trade tensions with China take.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席美国经济学家曾恩纳(Ellen Zentner)说,下一次衰退将从需求冲击开始。Zentner称,目前"可信空头"的可能性约为20%,但这可能很快改变,取决于目前与中国贸易紧张局势的走向。

“For now, the path to the bear case of a U.S. recession is still narrow, but not unrealistic,” said a report from Zentner and her team.

Zentner和她的团队在一份报告中称,"目前来看,美国经济陷入衰退的可能性仍然很小,但并非不现实。"

They said reliable yardsticks of an impending recession are nonfarm payrolls, consumer strength, manufacturing and aggregate indicators of growth such as those the Conference Board publishes.

他们说,衡量即将到来的经济衰退的可靠标准是非农就业人数、消费者实力、制造业以及世界大型企业联合会(Conference Board)等经济增长的综合指标。

As a whole, data confirming a recession are “just outside the danger zone,” wrote Zentner. But “these series can deteriorate rapidly, and a continuation of current deceleration trends through the summer would materially increase the risk of recession.”

Zentner写道,整体而言,确认经济衰退的数据"刚好在危险区域之外"。但“这些指标可能会迅速恶化,目前的减速趋势在整个夏季持续下去,将大大增加衰退的风险。”

At the heart of the recession case being made by Morgan Stanley are the intractable trade tensions between the United States and China that stand to trigger layoffs and a deceleration in consumer spending.

摩根士丹利提出的衰退理由的核心是美国和中国之间棘手的贸易紧张关系,这势必引发裁员和消费者支出放缓。

“If trade tensions escalate further, our economists see the direct impact of tariffs interacting with the indirect effects of tighter financial conditions and other spillovers, potentially leading consumers to retrench,” wrote Zentner.

Zentner写道:“如果贸易紧张局势进一步升级,我们的经济学家认为,关税的直接影响与金融环境收紧和其他溢出效应的间接影响相互作用,可能导致消费者缩减开支。”

“Corporates may start laying off workers and cutting capex as margins are hit further and uncertainty rises.”

“随着利润率进一步受到冲击,不确定性上升,企业可能开始裁员并削减资本支出。”

Taken together, these events will amount to a “large demand shock.” This huge hit will slow U.S. economic growth to negative 0.1 percent in 2020 from a projected 2.2 percent expansion in 2019. Zentner described this slowdown as a shallow recession but one that is, nevertheless, a huge comedown for an economy that grew 2.9 percent in 2018.

综上所述,这些事件将构成“巨大的需求冲击”。这一巨大打击将使美国经济增长从2019年预计的2.2%放缓到2020年的负0.1%。Zentner将这种放缓描述为一种轻微的衰退,但对于2018年增长2.9%的经济来说,这是一个巨大的下滑。

There will also be a big hit to stocks. Morgan Stanley said investors will be better served investing in defensive sectors like healthcare and consumer staples. Based on past experience, fixed income tends to outperform as a safe haven during a recession.

股市也将受到重创。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)表示,投资于医疗保健和消费必需品等防御性行业,将更好地服务于投资者。根据以往的经验,在经济衰退期间,固定收益产品作为避风港的表现往往强于其他产品。

On the other hand, motor vehicles and tech hardware are sectors most likely to underperform. Other sectors for investors to avoid include cyclical stocks and high-yield bonds.

另一方面,汽车和科技硬件行业最有可能表现不佳。投资者应避免投资的其他领域包括周期性股票和高收益债券。

Wall Street traders

Traders and financial professionals on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). Norway's sovereign wealth fund lost a ton of money at Wall Street and other equity markets in 2018. Photo: JOHANNES EISELE/AFP/Getty Images 

纽约证券交易所(NYSE)的交易员和金融专业人士。2018年,挪威主/权财富基金在华尔街和其他股市损失惨重。图:JOHANNES EISELE/法新社/盖蒂图片社

Investors should start becoming defensive now, says Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)表示,投资者现在应该开始采取守势。

“Since recessions do not announce themselves when they arrive and markets are forward-looking, history suggests that investors should not wait for confirmation of a recession before getting more defensive in their asset allocation,” wrote Zentner. “Patience does not pay when it comes to recessions."

Zentner写道:"由于经济衰退不会在何时到来时显现出来,且市场具有前瞻性,历史经验表明,投资者不应等到经济衰退得到证实后才在资产配置中采取更为防御性的策略。"“在经济衰退时,耐心是没有回报的。”

Zentner said waiting until the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) actually pronounces the economy in recession is a good time to start buying because the market already will have started pricing a recovery.

Zentner表示,等到美国国家经济研究局(NBER)真正宣布经济陷入衰退,才是开始买进的好时机,因为市场已经开始消化经济复苏的价格。

She believes the upcoming Fed rate cut might be negated by increasing pressure from tariffs that could pull both the U.S. and global economy into recession.

她认为,即将到来的美联储降息可能会被关税带来的越来越大的压力所抵消,而关税可能会将美国和全球经济拖入衰退。

More and more experts are now openly predicting a recession. The New York Fed estimates a 33 percent chance of a recession in the next 12 months, the highest level since the Great Recession of 2008.

现在越来越多的专家公开预测经济将会衰退。纽约联邦储备银行估计,未来12个月经济衰退的机率为33%,为2008年大衰退以来最高。

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