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更多的强制退休金将使澳大利亚中部更穷,而不是更富

more compulsory super would make Middle Australia poorer, not richer
更多的强制退休金将使澳大利亚中部更穷,而不是更富
818字
2019-07-20 15:14
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火星译客

Compulsory superannuation was sold to Australians on the basis that it would make us better off.

强制退休金被卖给了澳大利亚人,理由是这会让我们生活得更好。

But as the government prepares for an independent inquiry into retirement incomes, new Grattan Institute research finds that increasing compulsory contributions from 9.5% of wages to 12%, as has been legislated, would leave many Australian workers poorer over their entire lifetimes.

但在政府准备对退休收入进行独立调查之际,新格拉坦研究所(new Grattan Institute)的研究发现,按照立法规定,将强制性缴款从工资的9.5%提高到12%,会让许多澳大利亚劳动者的整个一生都更加贫穷。

They would sacrifice a significantly increased share of their lifetime wage in exchange for little or no increase in their retirement income.

他们将牺牲他们一生工资中显著增加的份额,以换取他们退休后收入的很少或没有增加。

The typical worker would lose about A$30,000 over her or his lifetime.

一个典型的工人一生中会损失大约3万澳元。

More compulsory super means lower wages

更多的强制超级意味着更低的工资

Superannuation delivers higher incomes in retirement at the expense of lower incomes while working.

退休金在退休后带来了更高的收入,而工作时的收入却较低。

Yet the superannuation lobby usually presents only one side of the pact, urging an increase in compulsory super to get the higher retirement incomes while ignoring the income that workers have to forgo to get them.

然而,养老金游说团体通常只代表了协议的一面,他们敦促增加强制性退休金,以获得更高的退休收入,同时忽视了工人必须放弃的收入。

Compulsory super contributions are paid by employers. But they appear to come out of funds the employers would otherwise have spent on wages.

雇主必须支付额外费用。但这些资金似乎来自雇主原本用于支付工资的资金。

This means increases in compulsory super come at the expense of wage increases – something that was acknowledged when compulsory super was set up (indeed, it was part of the reason it was set up) and has been acknowledged by advocates of higher contributions, including the former opposition leader Bill Shorten).

这意味着增加强制退休金的费用工资增长——这是承认当义务超级成立(实际上,它是部分原因)成立,被高贡献的支持者承认,包括前反对派领袖比尔缩短)。

这意味着强制性退休金的增加是以增加工资为代价的 - 这是在建立强制性退休金时确认的事实(事实上,这是它成立的原因之一),并得到了更高贡献的倡导者的承认,包括 前反对党领袖比尔·肖恩(Bill Shorten)

阅读更多:生产力委员会发现退休金制度很糟糕。是的,它来自工资

Grattan Institute calculations suggest that lifting compulsory super to 12% by 2025 will take up to A$20 billion a year from workers’ pockets. For most, the trade-off isn’t worth it.

Grattan研究所的计算表明,到2025年将强制退休金税率提高到12%,每年将从工人的口袋里拿出200亿澳元。对大多数人来说,这种交换并不值得。

The reality is that most Australians can already look forward to a better living standard in retirement than they had while working – even if they interrupt their careers to care for children. Workers with interrupted employment histories lose super in retirement, but get larger part-pensions.

现实情况是,大多数澳大利亚人已经可以期待退休后的生活水平比工作时更高——即使他们中断职业生涯照顾孩子。有中断工作经历的工人在退休后损失惨重,但得到了更多的部分养老金。

The poorest Australians get a clear pay rise when they retire: the age pension is worth more than their after-tax income while working.

最贫穷的澳大利亚人退休后工资明显增加:年龄养老金比他们工作时的税后收入更有价值。

Other Grattan Institute research finds retirees are more comfortable financially than any other group of Australians and are much less likely to suffer financial stress than working-age Australians.

格拉坦研究所的另一项研究发现,退休人员的经济状况比其他任何澳大利亚人都要好,而且他们比处于工作年龄的澳大利亚人承受经济压力的可能性要小得多。

It needn’t lead to better retirement

它不一定会带来更好的退休生活

So what about Middle Australia?

那么澳大利亚中部呢?

Despite the “magic” of compound returns, just about all of the extra income from a higher super balance at retirement would be offset by lower pension payments, due to the pension assets test.

尽管复利具有“魔力”,但由于养老金资产测试,退休时较高的退休金账户余额所带来的几乎所有额外收入,都将被较低的养老金支付抵消。

It is always possible the pension rules will change, but it isn’t usually regarded as wise to assess proposals on the basis of changes that haven’t happened and aren’t being suggested.

养老金规则总是有可能改变的,但通常认为,根据尚未发生或没有被建议的变化来评估提议是不明智的。

Pension payments themselves would also be lower under a 12% superannuation regime. They are benchmarked to wages, which would be lower if employers have to put more into super.

在12%的退休金制度下,养老金本身也会更低。它们以工资为基准,如果雇主不得不向退休金投入更多资金,工资将会更低。

The graph below shows that the big winners from higher compulsory super would be the wealthiest 20% of Australian earners, who would benefit from extra super tax breaks and would be unlikely to receive the age pension anyway.

下面的图表显示,更高的强制超级收入者的大赢家将是澳大利亚最富有的20%的收入者,他们将从额外的退休金税收优惠中受益,而且无论如何也不太可能获得年龄养老金。

Higher compulsory super redistributes income from the middle to the top. Middle earners would be no better off.

更高的强制性退休金收入再分配从中产阶级到顶层。中等收入者的境况也不会好到哪里去。

Over a lifetime, it could be a net loss

在一生中,这可能是一个净损失

As higher compulsory super would leave Middle Australians no better off in retirement, but poorer while working, it follows that it would make them poorer over their entire lives.

由于更高的强制退休金不会让澳大利亚中产阶级在退休后生活得更好,而是会让他们在工作时更穷,因此,这将使他们在整个一生中更穷。

How much poorer? We calculate that, after adjusting for inflation, the typical (median) 30-year-old Australian worker earning A$58,000 today would lose about 2.5% of wages each year and get less than a 1% boost to retirement income.

差多少?我们计算出,经通胀因素调整后,如今30岁、平均年收入5.8万澳元的澳大利亚工人每年将损失约2.5%的工资,退休后收入的增幅不到1%。

As a result, that person’s lifetime income would be almost 1% lower – about A$30,000 lower.

结果,这个人一生的收入将减少1%——大约减少3万澳元。

A post published on the Grattan Blog today gives more detail on the method we used to calculate the impact of higher compulsory super on lifetime incomes.

今天在Grattan博客上发表的一篇文章详细介绍了我们用来计算更高的强制性退休金补贴对终生收入影响的方法。

And it would cost the budget

这将耗费预算

Higher compulsory super might be justified if it saved the budget money on the pension – because those savings could be used to compensate middle-income earners via lower taxes or more services.

如果提高强制性退休金补贴可以节省养老金预算,那么它或许是合理的——因为这些节省下来的钱可以通过减税或提供更多服务来补偿中等收入者。

But in fact, higher super would cost the budget.

但事实上,更高的超级债券将耗费预算。

Our modelling shows that lifting compulsory super to 12% of wages would cost taxpayers an extra A$2 billion to A$2.5 billion per year in super tax breaks, overwhelmingly directed at high-income earners.

我们的模型显示,将强制征收的退休金工资提高到12%,将使纳税人每年额外支出20亿至25亿澳元,享受针对高收入者的超级税收优惠。

阅读更多:神话破灭。提高退休金计划的成本将超过它在年龄养老金上的节省

Those extra super tax breaks would dwarf any budget savings on the age pension until about 2060 – by which time there would be 80 years of budget costs from compulsory super to pay back before the whole exercise saved the government money.

在2060年之前,这些额外的退休金税收优惠将使年龄养老金的预算节省相形见绌——到2060年左右,从强制性的退休金税收减免到全部节省政府资金之前的偿还,将需要80年的预算成本。

Here’s the bottom line, worth keeping in mind in the lead-up to the independent inquiry: it’s hard to think of a policy less in the interests of working Australians than more compulsory super.

在进行独立调查之前,有一条底线值得牢记:对于工作澳大利亚人而言,很难想出一项比强制性退休金政策一样不顾及他们利益的政策。

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