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小于零会“反转”。储备银行将如何让量化宽松发挥作用

Below zero is ‘reverse’. How the Reserve Bank would make quantitative easing work
小于零会“反转”。储备银行将如何让量化宽松发挥作用
1116字
2019-07-20 14:43
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火星译客

With its official cash rate now expected to fall below 1% to a new extraordinarily low close to zero, all sorts of people are saying that the Reserve Bank is in danger of “running out of ammunition.” Ammunition might be needed if, as during the last financial crisis, it needs to cut rates by several percentage points.

随着官方现金利率预计将跌破1%,跌至接近于零的新低,各种各样的人都在说,储备银行面临“弹药耗尽”的危险。“如果像上次金融危机期间那样,美联储需要降息几个百分点,可能就需要弹药。

This view assumes that when the cash rate hits zero there is nothing more the Reserve Bank can do.

这种观点认为,当现金利率达到零时,储备银行就无能为力了。

The view is not only wrong, it is also dangerous, because if taken seriously it would mean that all of the next rounds of stimulus would have to be come from fiscal (spending and tax) policy, even though fiscal policy is probably ineffective long-term, its effects being neutralised by a floating exchange rate.

这种观点不仅是错误的,也是危险的,因为如果认真对待它就意味着所有的第二轮刺激计划必须来自财政支出和税收政策,即使长期财政政策可能是无效的,它的影响被浮动汇率中和了。

The experience of the United States shows that Australia’s Reserve Bank could quite easily take measures that would have the same effect as cutting its cash rate a further 2.5 percentage points – that is: 2.5 percentage points below zero.

美国的经验表明,澳大利亚的储备银行可以很容易地采取措施,将其现金利率再降低2.5个百分点,也就是:负2.5个百分点。

Reserve Bank cash rate since 1990

储备银行自1990年以来的现金利率

澳大利亚储备银行

In a report released on Tuesday by the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre, I document the successes and failures of the US approach to so-called “quantitative easing” (QE) between 2009 and 2014.

在悉尼大学(University of Sydney)美国研究中心(United States Studies Centre)周二发布的一份报告中,我记录了2009年至2014年间美国在所谓“定量宽松”(QE)政策上的成功与失败。

It demonstrates that it is always possible to change the instrument of monetary policy from changes in the official interest rate to changes in other interest rates by buying and holding other financial instruments such as long-term government and corporate bonds.

它表明,通过购买和持有长期政府债券和公司债券等其他金融工具,货币政策工具总是有可能从官方利率的变化转变为其他利率的变化。

Australia can learn form US mistakes. University of Sydney United States Studies Centre

澳大利亚可以从美国的错误中吸取教训。悉尼大学美国研究中心

The more aggressively the Reserve Bank buys those bonds from private sector owners, the lower the long-term interest rates that are needed to place bonds and the more former owners whose hands are filled with cash that they have to make use of.

美联储从私人部门所有者手中购买这些债券的力度越大,发行债券所需的长期利率就越低,而手中握有大量现金的前所有者也就越多。

In the US the Federal Reserve also used “forward guidance” about the likely future path of the US Federal funds rate to convince markets the rate would be kept low for an extended period.

在美国,美联储(FED)还利用有关美国联邦基金利率未来可能走势的“前瞻性指引”,说服市场相信,利率将在较长时期内保持在低位。

It is unclear which mechanism was the most powerful, or whether the Fed even needed to buy bonds in order to make forward guidance work. However in a stressed economic environment, it is worth trying both.

目前还不清楚哪种机制是最强大的,也不清楚美联储是否需要购买债券,以使前瞻性指引发挥作用。然而,在紧张的经济环境下,两者都值得一试。

阅读更多:储备银行将一次又一次地降低利率,直到我们增加支出并推高价格

As it comes to be believed that interest rates will stay low for an extended period, the exchange rate will fall, making it easier for Australian corporates to borrow from overseas and to export and compete with imports.

随着人们相信利率将在较长时期内保持在低位,汇率将会下降,这将使澳大利亚企业更容易从海外借款,更容易出口,并与进口商品竞争。

The consensus of the academic literature is that QE cut long-term interest rates by around one percentage point and had economic effects equivalent to cutting the US Federal fund rate by a further 2.5 percentage points after it approached zero.

学术文献的共识是,量化宽松将长期利率下调了约1个百分点,其经济效应相当于在美国联邦基金利率接近于零后再下调2.5个百分点。

QE need not have limits…

量化宽松不必有限制……

Based on US estimates, Australia’s Reserve Bank would need to purchase assets equal to around 1.5% of Australia’s Gross Domestic Product to achieve the equivalent of a 0.25 percentage point reduction in the official cash rate. That’s around A$30 billion.

根据美国的估计,澳大利亚央行需要购买相当于澳大利亚国内生产总值(GDP) 1.5%左右的资产,才能将官方现金利率下调0.25个百分点。这大约是300亿澳元。

With over A$780 billion in long-term government (Commonwealth and state) securities on issue, there’s enough to accommodate a very large program of Reserve Bank buying, and the bank could also follow the example of the Fed and expand the scope of purchases to include non-government securities, including residential mortgage-backed securities.

已发行7800亿澳元的长期政府(联邦和州)证券,足够储备银行的庞大购买计划,银行也可以效仿美联储并将购买范围扩大到非政府证券,包括住宅抵押贷款支持证券。

It could also learn from US mistakes. The Fed was slow to cut its official interest rate to near zero and slow to embark on QE in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Its first attempt was limited in size and duration. Its success in using QE to stimulate the economy should be viewed as the lower bound of what’s possible.

它也可以从我们的错误中吸取教训。2008年金融危机之后,美联储迟迟没有将官方利率降至接近于零的水平,也迟迟没有启动量化宽松政策。它的第一次尝试在规模和持续时间上是有限的。它成功地利用量化宽松政策刺激经济,应该被视为可能性的下限。

…even if it becomes less effective as it grows

…即使它随着增长而变得不那么有效

It often suggested (although it is by no means certain) that monetary policy becomes less effective when interest rates get very low, but this isn’t necessarily an argument to use monetary policy less. It could just as easily be an argument to use it more.

它经常暗示(尽管这一点也不确定),当利率非常低时,货币政策会变得不那么有效,但这并不一定是减少使用货币政策的理由。它也可以作为一个更容易使用它的论据。

Because there is no in-principle limit to how much QE a central bank can do, it is always possible to do more and succeed in lifting inflation rate and spending.

由于央行的量化宽松政策在原则上没有上限,因此央行总是有可能采取更多措施,并在提高通胀率和支出方面取得成功。

Fiscal policy may well be even less effective. To the extent that it succeeds, it is likely to push up the Australian dollar, making Australian businesses less competitive.

财政政策的效果可能更差。如果该计划获得成功,可能会推高澳元汇率,降低澳大利亚企业的竞争力。

US economist Scott Sumner believes the extra bang for the buck from government spending or tax cuts (known as the multiplier) is close to zero.

美国经济学家斯科特•萨姆纳(Scott Sumner)认为,政府支出或减税(被称为乘数)带来的额外收益接近于零。

Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe this month appealed for help from the government itself, asking in particular for extra spending on infrastructure and measures to raise productivity growth.

美国联邦储备银行(Reserve Bank of Reserve)行长罗威(Philip Lowe)本月呼吁政府自身提供帮助,尤其要求在基础设施和提高生产率的措施上增加支出。

阅读更多:生命体征。如果我们陷入经济衰退(我们有可能),我们要怪自己

He is correct in identifying the contribution other policies can make to driving economic growth. No one seriously thinks Reserve Bank monetary policy can or should substitute for productivity growth.

他正确地指出了其他政策可以为推动经济增长做出的贡献。没有人真正认为,储备银行的货币政策能够或应该替代生产率增长。

But it is a good, perhaps a very good, substitute for government spending that does not contribute to productivity growth.

但它是一个很好的或许是一个非常好的替代品,可以替代不促进生产率增长的政府支出。

Three myths about quantitative easing

关于量化宽松的三个神话

In the paper I address several myths about QE. One is that it is “printing money”. It no more prints money than does conventional monetary policy. It pushes money into private sector hands by adjusting interest rates, albeit a different set of rates.

在本文中,我阐述了有关量化宽松的几个迷思。其一是“印钞票”。与传统的货币政策一样,它也不印钞票。它通过调整利率(尽管是一套不同的利率)将资金推入私营部门手中。

Another myth is that it promotes inequality by helping the rich to get richer.

另一个误区是,它通过帮助富人变得更富来促进不平等。

It is a widely believed myth. Former Coalition treasurer Joe Hockey told the British Institute of Economic Affairs in 2014 that:

这是一个广为流传的神话。2014年,前联合政府财政部长乔•霍基(Joe Hockey)对英国经济事务研究所(British Institute of Economic Affairs)表示:

Loose monetary policy actually helps the rich to get richer. Why? Because we’ve seen rising asset values. Wealthier people hold the assets.

宽松的货币政策实际上帮助富人变得更富。为什么?因为我们看到了资产价值的上升。富人持有这些资产。

But it widens inequality no more than conventional monetary policy, and may not widen it at all if it is successful in maintaining sustainable economic growth.

但它不会比传统的货币政策更扩大不平等,而且如果它成功地维持了可持续的经济增长,它可能根本不会扩大不平等。

A third myth is that it leads to excessive inflation or socialism.

第三个误区是,它会导致过度通胀或社会主义。

In the US it has in fact been associated with some of the lowest inflation since the second world war. These days central banks are more likely to err on the side of creating too little inflation than too much.

在美国,通胀实际上与二战以来最低的通胀水平有关。如今,央行更有可能犯的错误是创造的通胀太少,而不是太多。

Some have argued that QE in the US is to blame for the rise of left-wing populists like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and “millennial socialism”. But it is probably truer to say that their grievances grew out of too tight rather than too lose monetary policy.

一些人认为,美国的量化宽松政策是亚历山大•奥卡西欧-科尔特斯(Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)和“千禧社会主义”等左翼民粹主义者崛起的原因。但更真实的说法可能是,他们的不满源自过于紧缩的货币政策,而非过于宽松的货币政策。

QE has been road tested. We’ve little to fear from it, just as we have had little to fear from conventional monetary policy.

量化宽松已经过路径测试。我们没有什么可害怕的,就像传统的货币政策一样我们没什么可害怕的。

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