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我们将目光移开,忽视了长期失业率的增长

What we missed while we looked away -- the growth of long‐term unemployment
我们将目光移开,忽视了长期失业率的增长
581字
2019-07-09 12:45
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火星译客

Australia took its eyes off long-term unemployment, for what it thought were good reasons.

澳大利亚将目光从长期失业问题上移开,因为它认为这是有充分理由的。

Long-term unemployment is defined as unemployment for more than 12 months in a row.

长期失业的定义是连续12个月以上的失业。

In the early 1990s, after the recession we had to have”, long-term unemployment grew to a postwar high of 4% and became a major concern for the government amid fears that once Australians had became long-term unemployed, they would never easily get back to work.

上世纪90年代初,在经济衰退之后,“长期失业率升至战后4%的高点,并成为政府的主要担忧,因为人们担心,一旦澳大利亚人长期失业,他们将永远无法轻易重返工作岗位。”

Over time, that concern lessened.

随着时间的推移,这种担忧减少了。

Strong economic growth delivered a steady decline in the overall rate of unemployment and, as a consequence, long-term unemployment.

强劲的经济增长带来了总体失业率的稳步下降,从而导致了长期失业率的下降。

With the long-term rate low, we looked away…

由于长期利率较低,我们将目光移向别处……

By the time the financial crisis hit in 2008, Australia’s long-term unemployment rate was down to just 0.6%. After the crisis, our lack of attention continued.

到2008年金融危机爆发时,澳大利亚的长期失业率已降至0.6%。危机过后,我们仍然未给予关注。

The crisis had caused only a relatively small increase in unemployment, and it seemed reasonable to assume that it hadn’t caused much of an uptick in long-term unemployment.

这场危机只导致了相对较小的失业率上升,而且似乎有理由认为,它并没有导致长期失业率大幅上升。

In absolute terms, it hadn’t. Today, long-term unemployment is 1.25%, still way below its peak in the early 1990s.

从绝对值上看并没有增加。如今,长期失业率为1.25%,仍远低于上世纪90年代初的峰值。

But that figure of 1.25% demands closer attention.

但是这个1.25%的数字需要密切关注。

It is about 0.3 percentage points higher than would have been the case for the same unemployment rate a few years earlier.

与几年前相同的失业率相比,现在的失业率大约高出0.3个百分点。

…and kept looking away…

…一直把视线移开…

Those few fractions of a percentage point mightn’t seem like much, but they add up to 41,000 more long-term unemployed Australians than would be expected.

这几个百分点看起来并不多,但加起来,长期失业的澳大利亚人比预期多4.1万人。

The surprising growth in long-term unemployment relative to unemployment can be seen in the figure below, which shows rates of unemployment and long-term unemployment from 2003 onwards.

长期失业率相对于失业率的惊人增长可以从下图中看到,下图显示了2003年以来的失业率和长期失业率。

It is clear that something changed after mid-2016.

很明显,2016年年中之后情况发生了变化。

Before then, an unemployment rate of 5% meant a rate of long-term unemployment of about 1%. After then it has meant a long-term unemployment rate of about 1.3%.

在此之前,5%的失业率意味着1%左右的长期失业率。在那之后,这意味着长期失业率约为1.3%。

While the change has become most apparent since 2016, I argue in my recent briefing on this topic that it began earlier, in the years between 2009 and 2016.

尽管这种变化自2016年以来最为明显,但我在最近一次关于这个话题的简报中辩称,这种变化开始得更早,发生在2009年至2016年之间。

During those seven years, the overall rate of unemployment changed little.

在这七年中,总体失业率几乎没有变化。

…while something changed

……而一些东西改变了

Standard theories predict that if the overall rate of unemployment remains stable, the rate of long-term unemployment should also remain stable.

标准理论预测,如果总体失业率保持稳定,那么长期失业率也应该保持稳定。

But the rate of long-term unemployment virtually doubled from 0.7% to 1.35% during those seven years, meaning the proportion of the unemployed who were long-term unemployed climbed from 13% to 23%.

但在这七年中,长期失业率几乎翻了一番,从0.7%升至1.35%,这意味着长期失业者的比例从13%升至23%。

The growth in long-term unemployment has been pervasive – affecting male and female jobseekers equally, and all age categories – although young jobseekers seem to have been the most affected.

长期失业的增长是普遍存在的,男女求职者以及所有年龄段的求职者都受到了同样的影响,尽管年轻求职者似乎受到的影响最大。

At this stage, the reasons for the increase remain unclear.

目前,增长的原因尚不清楚。

Low wage growth deepens the mystery

低工资增长加深了这个谜团

Paradoxically, it makes Australia’s current low rate of wage growth even harder to understand.

矛盾的是,这让澳大利亚目前的低工资增长率更加难以理解。

Standard theories characterise the long-term unemployed as being less immediately employable than the short-term unemployed, meaning that as long-term unemployment grows as a proportion of total unemployment, employers will try to fill vacancies from a smaller and smaller pool of short-term unemployed, making it easier for existing workers to extract higher wages.

标准理论将长期失业者描述为比短期失业者更难立即就业,这意味着随着长期失业率占总失业率的比例增加,雇主将试图从越来越少的短期失业者中填补空缺。耶德,使现有工人更容易获得更高的工资。

If this is happening, it is being more than offset by something else.

这种情况一旦发生,它就会被其他因素抵消。

What this development certainly does mean is that we ought to be concentrating more on getting the long-term unemployed back into work. Fortuitously, this is already happening.

这一发展确实意味着,我们应该更加关注让长期失业者重返工作岗位。幸运的是,这已经发生了。

In 2018 an expert panel commissioned by the then Commonwealth Department of Jobs and Small Business recommended rebalancing of employment services towards jobseekers facing the highest barriers to employment.

2018年,由当时的联邦就业和小企业部(Commonwealth Department of Jobs and Small Business)委托的一个专家小组建议,重新平衡就业服务,使其面向针对面临最高就业障碍的求职者。

The increasing chunk of the unemployed that are long-term unemployed makes the need for such a shift more critical.

长期失业的失业人口越来越多,做出转变更加迫切。

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